Spring Training!

   Please forgive the chicken-scratching above.  I have drawn up a nice scoresheet on Excel, but didn't want to waste it on a spring training game.

   I'm re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season using the classic board game Strat-O-Matic Baseball, and blogging about it as I go.  I, like many Expos fans, was devastated when the 94 season was cancelled, and have always wondered "what if" the strike had never happened.  This is a journey with that team, a journey into what might have been.
   I grew up an avid Strat player, but have not played in some time.  The last set I owned was the 1986 season, which still sits in a Creemore Springs Brewery box in my basement.  Actually, the box came up this weekend, as I needed the strategey and fielding charts.  I discovered that the ballpark effect chart had been nibbled on by a family of mice that set up housekeeping in my basement, so I had to download a new one from the Web - I would have needed to anyway, since mine was 30 years old, and many of the parks on it are no longer in existence.
   I also downloaded Pitcher's Hitting Cards as well.  The Internet is a wonderful thing.
   I'm playing the Advanced version, but I'm not sure that I'm up for the Super Advanced one.  I'm still mulling that one over.  Many people have suggested that I play the computer version of Strat, but the cards and dice is what I group up with - there's something about rolling the dice, shuffling through the cards, and keeping score yourself that is comforting to me.

   I played a pair of games between the Expos and the other team of my youth, the Blue Jays.  Game one was a home game for the Jays, so we used the DH.  Cycling through the Toronto lineup, it's easy to see why they would not have repeated as World Series champs, strike or no strike.  Their pitching was highly suspect, both starters and relievers, and once you got past the front line guys, it was a pencil-thin lineup of position players.  The Jays failed to re-tool after their 1993 win - the farm system had not produced a great deal in several years, and some of the top talent had been traded (Steve Karsay, Jeff Kent) in deals to bolster the team for pennant runs.  The cupboard was becoming quite empty, and when you combine the indifferent ownership of Belgian conglomerate Interbrew (who inherited the team after acquiring its original owners, Labbatt Brewing Company of Canada), it's no surprise that a decade of lousy baseball ensued.
   I've stated that I'm going to use some tactics from my study of baseball analytics, and I incorporated them into these games.  As you can see, I have Will Cordero leading off, and Marquis Grissom hitting 7th. Cordero had a superior on-base percentage, and Grissom's speed would be better suited to the bottom of the lineup - yes, stealing 2nd would likely mean that the opposition would walk Mike Lansing (of course, I'm the opposition manager), but I still think having a guy who gets on base and doesn't steal a lot of bases in the lead off spot is better than the reverse.  And on this occasion, I think the results bear witness to that - Cordero got on base three times in this first game, scoring a run in the 1st, and driving in what proved to be the winning run in the 8th.  Roberto Alomar led off the bottom of the 1st with a Home Run, and stole a base later - his speed was a major factor in the game.
   One strategy that didn't work out was bringing in Expos Closer John Wetteland into the game in the 8th inning.  With the Expos ahead by 5, it wasn't a save situation, but with the heart of the Toronto order coming up, I thought it was wise to turn things over to the usually lights-out Wetteland.  The plan backfired, as Ed Sprague hit a three-run Homer.  Wetteland got out of the inning, and Mel Rojas came in to get the Save in the 9th.  As the late Earl Weaver would say,

If I send Terry Crowley in with the bases loaded to hit for Mark Belanger and Crowley strikes out, that's not a mistake.  Or if I bring in Tippy Martinez to face Graig Nettles and Nettles homers, that's not a mistake.  Those are moves that didn't work.  There's nothing to aplogize about.

  I don't think this experience will deter me from doing the same thing again in a similar situation.  To me, it makes more sense to bring Wetteland in to face the 2/3/4 hitters in the 8th, and not the 5/6/7 (or lower) hitters in the 9th for the sake of a Save.

  In the second game, Joe Carter's 9th inning Grand Slam assured a 10-5 victory.   Alomar led the way with four runs scored, and stole a pair of bases, showing that Expos C Darrin Fletcher's arm may be a bit of a concern throughout the year. Installed in the #2 spot in the order for this game, Paul Molitor was 4-5 with a walk.  Not to beat my own analytic drum, but this had to be a huge factor in the Jays' win.  I chose Alomar over Devon White to lead off for the same reasons I chose Cordero over Grissom, and even though it's a small sample size, it's hard to argue with the results.  Then again, the Cordero-Moises Alou combo at the top of the order didn't do a whole lot in this game.

   I used the pitcher's fatigue point in these games, and even though no starter reached that point, it did become a factor in both games.  The ballpark effect chart also came into play several times in the second game, as potential Home Runs became lineouts to 2nd.  I downloaded the weather effect chart, but I'm not sure how much I'll use it - if any Strat players reading this would like to convince me that I should consider using it, please feel free to let me know.  I also could not find what an upside down clear triangle means, nor could I figure out how to use it.  Again, please inform me if you know.  I also did not use the pitcher's ability to hold runners on, and will have to figure out how to use this, or the opposition may steal everything but Fletcher's shinguards this year.  I started Jeff Fassero in the 2nd game, and in hindsight he may have helped to limit the running game a bit if I had used that element.

   When the regular season starts next week, I will make every attempt to look up the pitching matchups on baseball reference for each series and use them, to try to keep the simulation as real as I can.  I don't think I will look up injuries for the other teams as I go, and I realize that may put the Expos at a disadvantage - they will have to face the other team's best lineup day in and day out.  I may consider using back up Catchers in day games after night games, though.  Pitching matchups go out the window, of course, after August 11th, and I think that I will try to cycle through each team's rotation after that, so that the Expos will face the pitchers they likely would have faced.

   Having the dice and cards in my hand, hunched over my makeshift scorecard on my desk, it was just like my youth - except for the Jays spring training game I was streaming on my tablet.
   I wonder if I would have had any clue what that meant 30 years ago.
   I am truly looking forward to this endeavour.  It felt good to be playing Strat again, and living with the 94 Expos for part of an afternoon.

1994 - Storm Clouds on the Horizon

   I know it's been a while.......

 In case you missed my previous posts, or are just too lazy to scroll down and read them, I'm re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season using the classic board game Strat-O-Matic Baseball.
Both the Expos and Strat were fixtures in my youth, so this is a natual marriage to me.

 With a two year old and a newborn in our house in 1994, I did not get to follow the Expos as closely as I would have liked.  Jonah Keri's excellent history of the team, "Up, Up, and Away," as well as Danny Gallagher and Bill Young's superbly documented "Ecstasy to Agony: The 1994 Montreal Expos" have been fantastic memory joggers.

 There was both great anticipation and angst as the 94 season approached.  The 93 edition of the team saw its collection of rising young stars begin to hit their peak, as the team was in contention right up until the final days of the season, ultimately finishing 2nd to the Phillies with a very respectable 94-68 record.
  The 1993-94 off season would prove to be one of upheaval, though.
  Ace Dennis Martinez, whose 15 wins led the staff, departed as a free agent after the season, having becoming too expensive for the budget-conscious Expos.  A trade had been arranged in August that would send El Presidente to the Giants, but since the deal was after the trade deadline, Martinez had to clear waivers, and the Braves, gearing up for a pennant run, put in a claim.  The Expos then attempted to deal Martinez to Atlanta, but as a 10 and 5 man, he vetoed the deal, claiming that the Braves would not agree to a contract extension, and they only planned to use him as a sixth starter anyway.
  Nonetheless, the departure of the author of the only perfect game in Expos history did not sit well with the fans.  Their ire was only further provoked when leadoff hitter Delino Deshields, who some called the face of the team, was dealt to Los Angeles for a middle relief pitcher with a suspect shoulder.  Pedro Martinez would go on to win a Cy Young for the Expos before being dealt to the Red Sox, but fans were incensed at the deal.
  Added to this were the constant rumours that the club was on the verge of dealing slugging Canadian outfielder Larry Walker before he too became a budgetary burden.
  The off season drama continued as the talk that the architect of the team, GM Dan Duquette, was about to leave for greener pastures in Boston reached a head in January,  With the Expos unable to meet his demands for a new contract, Duquette bolted for the Red Sox as spring training was about to open.
 In the space of a few months, the team had lost its ace, one of its most popular players, its GM, and was on the verge of losing its best position player.  And lurking in the background was the growing specter of labour unrest, which had plagued baseball since 1981.
  What should have been an off season of growing enthusiasm turned into considerable frustration for Expos fans.  This was a team that was solid everywhere - starting pitching (despite the loss of Dennis Martinez), the bullpen, the starting lineup, and even the bench.  Players like Walker, Moises Alou, Marquis Grissom, Will Cordero, and John Wetteland were just coming into their prime.  And leading this group was Manager Felipe Alou, a longtime Expos minor league skipper who was just starting to build a legacy of his own.

  I will play a couple of exhibition games against the other team of my Canadian youth, the Blue Jays, this weekend, and update you all next week.  I'm using the advanced version of Strat, although I may give the super advanced version a try.  Both are more realistic than the basic version in terms of match ups, fielding, and base running.

Almost Ready for Pre-Season Play

Montreal Gazette photo

   For those of you who have clicked on this blog for the first time, welcome!
For those who have read my previous posts, I apologize for the inactivity of the last few weeks.

  I am re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season, the tragically strike-shortened one, using the classic Strat-o-Matic Baseball board game.  I am also using Out of the Park Baseball to simulate the other teams' games for that season.

  In my last post, I looked at some practical simulation questions.  While I plan to take the Expos to the World Series and win, I do want to make this endeavour as realistic as I can. I think I have answered most of my own questions.  One thing I do plan to do is to take more of a sabermetric approach to managing the Expos than Felipe Alou may have done in 1994.  For example, closer John Wetteland will not be limited to the 9th inning.  While my expectation is that he will close out games, I will not hesitate to bring him into high leverage situations in the 8th, if needed, and let another reliever close the 9th.

 I'm also considering tinkering with the Expos batting order.  Here is a typical order, taken from the July 23rd game vs the Dodgers:

Marquis Grissom cf
Cliff Floyd   lf
Moises Alou  rf
Larry Walker  1b
Will Cordero  ss
Mike Lansing 2b
Lenny Webster c
Sean Berry  3b
Jeff Fassero  p

And here is how the team's starters finished in terms of On Base Percentage:

Alou	.397
Walker	.394
Cordero	.363
Berry	.347
Grissom	.344
Floyd	.332
Lansing	.328
Fletcher	.314

  Based on that, Grissom doesn't necessarily profile as the most efficient leadoff hitter.  At the same time, using Tangotiger's Run Expectancy Table, the difference between a man on 1st/0 outs, vs no men on base/1 out is about 65% in terms of the average number of runs scored per inning.  Any base stealer who had a success rate of less than 65% would actually be costing his team runs.  Grissom's rate was about 85%, so while he did not get on base as often as I might like for a leadoff man, he wasn't running his team out of scoring opportunities.  

   I'm musing about using this lineup:

Cordero

Alou 

Walker

Berry

Floyd

Grissom

Fletcher

Lansing

   Cordero certainly is not a match for Grissom in terms of speed, but he got on base about 6% more often, giving Alou, Walker, and Berry chances to drive him in with extra base hits. Grissom's speed might be more valuable ahead of hitters like Fletcher and Lansing - he can move himself into scoring position.  I consider Alou to be the best hitter on the team, so I want him to have as many ABs as possible.  

  The starting rotation is pretty much set:

Ken Hill

Pedro Martinez

Jeff Fassero

Butch Henry

Kirk Rueter

   The Expos received 102 of their 114 starts from that group.  In the case of off days, I do plan on skipping Rueter's turn in the rotation sometimes.

  The bullpen will likely be:

Tim Scott/Gil Heredia  - long relief

Jeff Shaw -7th

Mel Rojas/John Wetteland - 8th/9th, depending on the situation

  That should leave room on the roster for bench players:

Webster

Lou Frazier

Juan Bell

Rondell White

   I'm undecided on the last two spots on the 25-man.  I'm leaning toward Randy Milligan for right-handed pinch-hitting duties, and Gabe White so there's at least one lefty in the bullpen, although the team went with a 10-man pitching staff for most of the season.  Tim Spehr is an option as a 3rd string catcher.

  It has nothing to do with the simulation, but back in the days when the Tigers had their AA affiliate in London, ON, about a three hour drive from my home, I booked myself into a conference in nearby Woodstock.  My main reason for doing so was that the conference coincided with a visit to London by the Expos Harrisburg farm club, and I was anxious to get my first look at Floyd and White.  In those pre social media days, I missed word that they had been promoted to AAA Ottawa a few days before my conference starter.  I still made the trek to London, and watched Berry and a young Miguel Batista play for the Senators.

  My wife and I are headed to Florida in a week to soak up some Gulf Coast sunshine, and hopefully catch some Blue Jays major and minor league spring training action.  Ok, my wife is more likely hoping to be catching some outlet mall action instead of going to the ballpark.

   When we return, I will play a couple of exhibition games against the Blue Jays to review how to play the super-advanced version of Strat.  I'll let you know how I make out.

  As always, if you have any thoughts, comments, or general observations and suggestions about how I can make this simulation better, please leave them below.