Expos Take Two Out of Three

   The 1994 Expos returned to action by taking two out of three games at home from the Giants in three low-scoring games.
 
   The Giants edged the Expos 3-2 in the series opener.  Barry Bonds and Matt Williams hit back-to-back solo Home Runs in the top of the 1st against Pedro Martinez.  San Francisco scored again in the 4th, when Jeff Reed's RBI single cashed in Willie McGee.  The Expos countered with runs in the 5th and 7th, but were unable to put crooked numbers up against Giants' starter Bill Swift.  Mike Jackson and Rod Beck slammed the door shut to preserve the win.

   Game two was another low-scoring affair.  The Giants scored a pair in the top of the 2nd against Expos' starter Jeff Fassero on a Royce Clayton two-run shot, after the Expos had opened the scoring in their half of the 1st on a Larry Walker RBI double.   The Expos tied it up in the 6th when Walker's single scored Will Cordero from 2nd.  That was to be the last run scored by either side for the next ten innings.
   The Giants had the winning run in scoring position in the 9th, 10th, and 12th innings, but the Expos bullpen held firm.  The Giants' pen was just as effective, allowing only two baserunners from the 10th to the 14th inning.
   Finally, the Expos cracked the deadlock in their half of the 16th.  After a leadoff triple by Marquis Grissom and a walk to Moises Alou, a sacrifice fly by Walker brought home the winning run.  Tim Scott picked up the win after tossing a scoreless top of the 16th.

  Game 3 featured a near no-hitter by Expos starter Ken Hill.  The Expos could manage only one run through five innings against Giants starter Solomon Torres, A two-run shot by Sean Berry in the 7th gave some breathing room for Hill, who had allowed only a pair or runners to reach through that many innings.  Hill held the Giants hitless through 8, but gave up a two-out single to Darren Lewis in the 9th.  After walking Bonds, Hill retired Williams to record the complete game, shutout victory.

   The series win improves the Expos record to 13-10.  The Padres move into Olympic Stadium next for a three-game series.

 

Expos Sweep Padres, Extend Win Streak to 4

  The 1994 Montreal Expos swept the San Diego Padres in a two-game mini series played at Jack Murphy Stadium, pounding out 32 hits over the pair of games in defeating the Padres 16-2 and 11-1.


  In the first game of the set, Moises Alou hit a three-run home run, and Larry Walker added a two-run shot in leading Butch Henry to his first win of the season.  Will Cordero went 5-5 in the second contest and drove in 5 runs, and Pedro Martinez fanned 9 over 7 winnings to pick up his first victory.

   The 94 Padres did not have a lot going for them outside of Tony Gwynn.  They finished the abbreviated season at 47-70, six games below their Pythagorean, and finished last in National League attendance.  Gwynn did have some protection in the lineup in the form of Derek Bell, who hit .311/.354/.454 for the last place Padres.  Bell's career had more than its share of controversy, and its end was summed up beautifully by Pittsburgh columnist Mark Madden.


  The 94 Expos now head up the coast for a three game set with Los Angeles before flying home to host return engagements with the three west coast teams.

Gwynn's basic card:

 Game 2 scoresheet:

Almost Ready for Pre-Season Play

Montreal Gazette photo

   For those of you who have clicked on this blog for the first time, welcome!
For those who have read my previous posts, I apologize for the inactivity of the last few weeks.

  I am re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season, the tragically strike-shortened one, using the classic Strat-o-Matic Baseball board game.  I am also using Out of the Park Baseball to simulate the other teams' games for that season.

  In my last post, I looked at some practical simulation questions.  While I plan to take the Expos to the World Series and win, I do want to make this endeavour as realistic as I can. I think I have answered most of my own questions.  One thing I do plan to do is to take more of a sabermetric approach to managing the Expos than Felipe Alou may have done in 1994.  For example, closer John Wetteland will not be limited to the 9th inning.  While my expectation is that he will close out games, I will not hesitate to bring him into high leverage situations in the 8th, if needed, and let another reliever close the 9th.

 I'm also considering tinkering with the Expos batting order.  Here is a typical order, taken from the July 23rd game vs the Dodgers:

Marquis Grissom cf
Cliff Floyd   lf
Moises Alou  rf
Larry Walker  1b
Will Cordero  ss
Mike Lansing 2b
Lenny Webster c
Sean Berry  3b
Jeff Fassero  p

And here is how the team's starters finished in terms of On Base Percentage:

Alou	.397
Walker	.394
Cordero	.363
Berry	.347
Grissom	.344
Floyd	.332
Lansing	.328
Fletcher	.314

  Based on that, Grissom doesn't necessarily profile as the most efficient leadoff hitter.  At the same time, using Tangotiger's Run Expectancy Table, the difference between a man on 1st/0 outs, vs no men on base/1 out is about 65% in terms of the average number of runs scored per inning.  Any base stealer who had a success rate of less than 65% would actually be costing his team runs.  Grissom's rate was about 85%, so while he did not get on base as often as I might like for a leadoff man, he wasn't running his team out of scoring opportunities.  

   I'm musing about using this lineup:

Cordero

Alou 

Walker

Berry

Floyd

Grissom

Fletcher

Lansing

   Cordero certainly is not a match for Grissom in terms of speed, but he got on base about 6% more often, giving Alou, Walker, and Berry chances to drive him in with extra base hits. Grissom's speed might be more valuable ahead of hitters like Fletcher and Lansing - he can move himself into scoring position.  I consider Alou to be the best hitter on the team, so I want him to have as many ABs as possible.  

  The starting rotation is pretty much set:

Ken Hill

Pedro Martinez

Jeff Fassero

Butch Henry

Kirk Rueter

   The Expos received 102 of their 114 starts from that group.  In the case of off days, I do plan on skipping Rueter's turn in the rotation sometimes.

  The bullpen will likely be:

Tim Scott/Gil Heredia  - long relief

Jeff Shaw -7th

Mel Rojas/John Wetteland - 8th/9th, depending on the situation

  That should leave room on the roster for bench players:

Webster

Lou Frazier

Juan Bell

Rondell White

   I'm undecided on the last two spots on the 25-man.  I'm leaning toward Randy Milligan for right-handed pinch-hitting duties, and Gabe White so there's at least one lefty in the bullpen, although the team went with a 10-man pitching staff for most of the season.  Tim Spehr is an option as a 3rd string catcher.

  It has nothing to do with the simulation, but back in the days when the Tigers had their AA affiliate in London, ON, about a three hour drive from my home, I booked myself into a conference in nearby Woodstock.  My main reason for doing so was that the conference coincided with a visit to London by the Expos Harrisburg farm club, and I was anxious to get my first look at Floyd and White.  In those pre social media days, I missed word that they had been promoted to AAA Ottawa a few days before my conference starter.  I still made the trek to London, and watched Berry and a young Miguel Batista play for the Senators.

  My wife and I are headed to Florida in a week to soak up some Gulf Coast sunshine, and hopefully catch some Blue Jays major and minor league spring training action.  Ok, my wife is more likely hoping to be catching some outlet mall action instead of going to the ballpark.

   When we return, I will play a couple of exhibition games against the Blue Jays to review how to play the super-advanced version of Strat.  I'll let you know how I make out.

  As always, if you have any thoughts, comments, or general observations and suggestions about how I can make this simulation better, please leave them below.

Valderi....Valdera...

  

 "Valderiiiiiii......Valderaaaaaa......Valderahahahahahah......Valderiiiii.....Valderaaaaaaaa......."

  Driving home from my grandparents' home in Eastern Ontario on a Sunday afternoon, my Dad would often tune in an Expos game from a radio station in Oshawa, just east of Toronto.  During a break in the action, the tune from Montreal organist Fernand Lapierre would echo around Olympic Stadium in between the dulcet tones of Expos broadcasters Dave Van Horne and Duke Snider.

  Before the Blue Jays, the Expos were truly Canada's team, captivating the country in both official languages. For a young baseball-mad boy growing up in Southern Ontario, they were a godsend.  NBC broadcast a Saturday game of the week, but with cable tv still in its infancy in Canada, the Wednesday night telecast on CBC was the only regular televised action I could watch

  Of course, the Expos were loveable losers in their early days, except for a brief flirtation with a pennant run in 1973, but by the late 70s, when I was a bored kid in the back seat of my parents' 1973 Ford Montego trying to pass the four hour drive home from my Dad's parents' place, the games took on new importance.

   A young core of players led by Gary Carter, Warren Cromartie, Ellis Valentine, Larry Parrish, and Andre Dawson lent considerable promise to the future.  By 1979, veterans Tony Perez and Bill Lee led the team into contention, finishing 95-65, 2 games behind the NL East and eventual World Series-winning We Are Famileeee Pittsburgh Pirates.  2.1 million rabid fans flocked to the Big O that year.

   That core of youngsters, who were labelled the Team of the 80s, never lived up to that promise.  Rick Monday's Home Run off of the bat of Steve Rogers, called in to relieve starter Ray Burris in the top of the 9th, eliminated the Expos in Game 5 of the (then Best of 5) NLCS.  The Expos would never scale such heights again.

   The team was mostly competitive for the rest of the decade, but had become an afterthought as the 80s gave way to the 90s.  Once again, the Expos rode a group of young players led by Larry Walker, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez, and by the summer of 1994, the team was rolling - they had four separate six-game winning streaks, and 8-game winning streak, and by August 11th were atop the NL East with a 74-40 record, 6 games clear of the Braves.

   We all know what happened next.

   The labour disruption resulted in the eventual cancellation of the remainder of the World Series, and cost the Expos what would turn out to be their last shot at contention.  The sell-off of the team's stars by ownership prior to the next spring training would turn out to be the beginning of the end of the franchise, which died a slow death under before moving to Washington after the 2004 season.

   Watching that final game was gut-wrenching, but the truth is was that the flame had long since been worthy of the candle.  My dad took me as a youngster to my first MLB game in 1973 at Parc Jarry, once labelled "Canada's largest outdoor insane asylum."  It was a sharp contrast the atmosphere we experienced 30 years later, when I took my dad to Olympic Stadium for a game between the Expos and Braves before about 8 500 fans in what seemed like a funereal setting.

*****************************************************************************

     My Uncle Tom introduced me to Strat-O-Matic Baseball sometime in the early 70s.  I taught my older brother to play, and we would often dump the player cards in a hat and "draft" a team, and play Best-of-Seven series against each other.  His buddy Wayne, who was tall and played 1st Base and therefore was nicknamed Willie, would play each other in the same manner.
    Eventually, I grew up (kind of), and went off to University, leaving my old Strat cards at my parents' house. While wandering around the former flagship store of the Eatons in the large downtown mall named after Canada's first family of retail, I came across the 1986 version, which cost $54 - a huge sum of money for a starving student.  I picked up the box, fought temptation, then set it down.  I circled the store several times before finally succumbing, and plunked down two weeks' worth of groceries for the game.  I still have the well-worn cards in my basement.

   The idea came several years ago, and was renewed when Jonah Keri's excellent "Up, Up, and Away," history of the Expos came out:  replay that 94 season with Strat-O-Matic.  I had a little trouble tracking a set down for the equivalent of a couple of months of groceries in 2015 dollars, but a connection on a Facebook group I belong to came through for me.  The 94 cards came in the mail last week, and I spent an enjoyable couple of nostalgic hours sorting through the whole set.
    My goal is to replay that season, and to blog about it as I go.  In subsequent posts, I will detail some of the decisions I had to make in order to make this simulation as realistic as I can.  I'll also play a few exhibition games against the Blue Jays and Red Sox in March to get my Strat feet back under me (I haven't played in a couple of decades).  Come April, I will follow the 94 schedule, and blog the results after each series.  I'll also keep a running comparison going between the real Expos, and my Expos.
    I hope you enjoy the posts that follow.