Expos Sweep Padres, Extend Win Streak to 4

  The 1994 Montreal Expos swept the San Diego Padres in a two-game mini series played at Jack Murphy Stadium, pounding out 32 hits over the pair of games in defeating the Padres 16-2 and 11-1.


  In the first game of the set, Moises Alou hit a three-run home run, and Larry Walker added a two-run shot in leading Butch Henry to his first win of the season.  Will Cordero went 5-5 in the second contest and drove in 5 runs, and Pedro Martinez fanned 9 over 7 winnings to pick up his first victory.

   The 94 Padres did not have a lot going for them outside of Tony Gwynn.  They finished the abbreviated season at 47-70, six games below their Pythagorean, and finished last in National League attendance.  Gwynn did have some protection in the lineup in the form of Derek Bell, who hit .311/.354/.454 for the last place Padres.  Bell's career had more than its share of controversy, and its end was summed up beautifully by Pittsburgh columnist Mark Madden.


  The 94 Expos now head up the coast for a three game set with Los Angeles before flying home to host return engagements with the three west coast teams.

Gwynn's basic card:

 Game 2 scoresheet:

Expos Sweep the Giants!

   I'm re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season using Strat-O-Matic baseball - the board game version.

   Thanks to all for your comments and page views.  I had no idea that this project would be as popular as it has become.

    The 94 Expos moved to 8-6 on the season by starting their west coast road trip with a two game sweep of the Giants.

   Game 1 was a low-scoring affair that lasted 15 innings, with the Expos scoring a pair in the top of the 15th to win 3-1:

     Game two saw Kirk Rueter make his first start of the year, and held the Giants scoreless for 6 innings.  Jeff Shaw pitched a pair of scoreless innings, and John Wetteland struck out the side in the bottom of the 9th to preserve the shutout, as the Expos topped the Giants 5-0.  Barry Bonds and Matt Williams were held to a combined 2-19 for the series.  I held my breath every time they came up.

    The 94 Giants finished at 55-60, three games under their Pythagorean.  They had decent pitching, as well as Williams and Bonds in the middle of the order, but they also had a barely above replacement level supporting cast of every day players like Kurt Manwaring, Todd Benzinger, and Darren Lewis.  

   The Expos pitching is beginning to emerge as the club's strong suit.  In addition to the excellent starting rotation anchored by Martinez, Hill, and Fassero, the bullpen of Shaw, Scott, Wetteland, and Rojas is emerging as this team's strength.

   The 94 Expos headed into San Francisco on a three game losing streak, and won the final game of the series to stop a four game slide, and improve their record to 5-9.  Their 9-7 re-creation record has them sitting 4.5 games back of the Braves, who won 13 of their first 15.  

   

Two Weeks In

 Yes, I'm already falling behind.
  Playing Strat every day is enjoyable, but a grind.
  Ok, if you do the math, I haven't been playing every day, but you get the idea.
 

  I'm re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season using the classic board game Strat-O-Matic Baseball.  I've played a dozen games so far, and the Expos are an even 6-6 after losing 2 of 3 to Colorado.  Former Expo Andres Galaragga hit a walk-off three run homer to lead the Rockies to victory in the middle game of the series.
   The Expos road trip continues with two games in San Francisco, a pair with the Padres, and three in Los Angeles before Montreal returns home to return the favour with the west coast teams.

  I've adjusted the batting order, abandoning my earlier principles somewhat.  I had Will Cordero hit lead off over Marquis Grissom because of his superior OBP, but I've junked that for a lineup that Manager Felipe Alou used frequently in 1994:

Lansing 2b
Cordero ss
Grissom cf
Walker rf
Alou  lf
Floyd 1b
Berry 3b
Webster C

(Regular C Darrin Fletcher rolled a 20 on an injury roll in the second series, and is still out for 9 games)

  A couple of concerns have emerged already:
-the Expos have had trouble controlling the opposition running game
-defence has been a concern - the Expos have committed 21 errors already
-the bullpen has been inconsistent.
-the starters have lasted beyond the 6th inning only twice

  This team is simply too good for this small sample trend to continue, however, and I have no doubt the law of averages will win out in the end.

  I will post stats in another post, but due to a number of reader requests, here are a few players cards from that 94 set:

Larry Walker

Pedro Martinez

Andres Galaragga

Opening Day!

   The Expos took two of three from the hometown Astros in my re-creation of the 1994 Expos season using the classic simulation board game Strat-O-Matic baseball, the highlight of which was a 16 inning affair in the middle match of the three-game set.

   In the opener, the Astros scored four runs in the 5th off of Expos starter Pedro Martinez to knock him out of the game en route to a 5-3 win.

   The second match of the series was a wild one.  The Astros took an early lead in the 1st, when Luis Gonzalez' sac fly brought in James Mouton.  Darrin Fletcher tied things up the next inning with a solo Home Run.
   Starters Ken Hill and Doug Drabek traded scoreless innings after that, until Will Cordero led off the sixth with a solo shot to break the tie.  Andjuar Cedeno doubled in Ken Caminiti to knot things at 2 in the home half of the 7th.
   And we were scoreless until the 11th, when a Jeff Gardner pinch hit RBI single plated Larry Walker.  Expos reliever Tim Scott hit Jeff Bagwell to lead off the bottom half of the inning, and Bagwell came around to score on Milt Thompson's pinch hit RBI base hit.
   The Expos appeared to have put the game away in their half of the 13th, when they plated a pair of runs, thanks to Cordero's second homer of the game, and an error by Astros pitcher Todd Jones allowed Moises Alou to score.  With two out and a runner on in the home half of the inning, the Astros tied the game once again on a Home Run by Caminiti.
   The game stayed deadlocked until the 16th, when a three-run shot by Alou put the Expos ahead to stay, 8-5.  Gil Heredia pitched two scoreless innings to record the win, while Darryl Kile took the loss for the Astros.
   A total of 44 players were used in the game, 15 of them pitchers.  I admit to some over-managing on the Astros behalf, when I played the match up game in the 9th, and used 4 relievers, forcing me to use Kile when the bullpen was empty.

   I did not have Pitcher's Hitting Cards before I started this project, so I downloaded some and printed them, simply referring to the sheet when I needed to.  With all the double-switches I had to use in this game, it was very difficult to remember when the pitcher's spot in the order came up, so I will have to photocopy some onto some card stock so that I can keep them in the lineup.

   The third game was a more tame affair, with the Expos winning        .  A huge blow came in the   7th inning, when Fletcher was hit by a pitch, and was knocked out of the lineup for 15 games.

   I made a lineup tweak after the 2nd game.  I have said previously that I preferred Cordero over Marquis Grissom for the leadoff spot, feeling that the former's higher OBP would play better there, and with the hitters coming up behind him, stolen bases would not be crucial, and the latter's speed might be better suited to the bottom of the lineup, where his speed might get him into scoring position ahead of the weaker hitters in that part of the lineup.  I had Grissom hitting 7th, behind Fletcher, but for Game 3, I moved switched the pair.
   As I played this series, I wondered why the Astros, with that lineup, might far in a 94 simulation of their own.  Houston finished 66-49 in the shortened season, good enough for 2nd in the NL Central. It would appear that starting pitching was an issue, with only Drabek having a decent season.  With a middle of the batting order featuring Craig Biggio, Bagwell, Gonzalez, and Caminiti, they could put a lot of runs on the board, and they rode the strength of that offence for much of the season, and were only a half game back of the Reds when the strike ended play on August 11th.

  In real life, the Expos also took two of three of that opening series.  After the Astros won the opener, solid starting performances by Hill and Kirk Rueter gave Montreal the series win.  Next up is the Cubs back in the cozy confines of Olympic Stadium.   The pitching matchups will be:

Game 1 - Rueter vs Steve Traschel
Game 2 - Martinez vs Anthony Young
Game 3 - Hill vs Jose Guzman

Spring Training!

   Please forgive the chicken-scratching above.  I have drawn up a nice scoresheet on Excel, but didn't want to waste it on a spring training game.

   I'm re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season using the classic board game Strat-O-Matic Baseball, and blogging about it as I go.  I, like many Expos fans, was devastated when the 94 season was cancelled, and have always wondered "what if" the strike had never happened.  This is a journey with that team, a journey into what might have been.
   I grew up an avid Strat player, but have not played in some time.  The last set I owned was the 1986 season, which still sits in a Creemore Springs Brewery box in my basement.  Actually, the box came up this weekend, as I needed the strategey and fielding charts.  I discovered that the ballpark effect chart had been nibbled on by a family of mice that set up housekeeping in my basement, so I had to download a new one from the Web - I would have needed to anyway, since mine was 30 years old, and many of the parks on it are no longer in existence.
   I also downloaded Pitcher's Hitting Cards as well.  The Internet is a wonderful thing.
   I'm playing the Advanced version, but I'm not sure that I'm up for the Super Advanced one.  I'm still mulling that one over.  Many people have suggested that I play the computer version of Strat, but the cards and dice is what I group up with - there's something about rolling the dice, shuffling through the cards, and keeping score yourself that is comforting to me.

   I played a pair of games between the Expos and the other team of my youth, the Blue Jays.  Game one was a home game for the Jays, so we used the DH.  Cycling through the Toronto lineup, it's easy to see why they would not have repeated as World Series champs, strike or no strike.  Their pitching was highly suspect, both starters and relievers, and once you got past the front line guys, it was a pencil-thin lineup of position players.  The Jays failed to re-tool after their 1993 win - the farm system had not produced a great deal in several years, and some of the top talent had been traded (Steve Karsay, Jeff Kent) in deals to bolster the team for pennant runs.  The cupboard was becoming quite empty, and when you combine the indifferent ownership of Belgian conglomerate Interbrew (who inherited the team after acquiring its original owners, Labbatt Brewing Company of Canada), it's no surprise that a decade of lousy baseball ensued.
   I've stated that I'm going to use some tactics from my study of baseball analytics, and I incorporated them into these games.  As you can see, I have Will Cordero leading off, and Marquis Grissom hitting 7th. Cordero had a superior on-base percentage, and Grissom's speed would be better suited to the bottom of the lineup - yes, stealing 2nd would likely mean that the opposition would walk Mike Lansing (of course, I'm the opposition manager), but I still think having a guy who gets on base and doesn't steal a lot of bases in the lead off spot is better than the reverse.  And on this occasion, I think the results bear witness to that - Cordero got on base three times in this first game, scoring a run in the 1st, and driving in what proved to be the winning run in the 8th.  Roberto Alomar led off the bottom of the 1st with a Home Run, and stole a base later - his speed was a major factor in the game.
   One strategy that didn't work out was bringing in Expos Closer John Wetteland into the game in the 8th inning.  With the Expos ahead by 5, it wasn't a save situation, but with the heart of the Toronto order coming up, I thought it was wise to turn things over to the usually lights-out Wetteland.  The plan backfired, as Ed Sprague hit a three-run Homer.  Wetteland got out of the inning, and Mel Rojas came in to get the Save in the 9th.  As the late Earl Weaver would say,

If I send Terry Crowley in with the bases loaded to hit for Mark Belanger and Crowley strikes out, that's not a mistake.  Or if I bring in Tippy Martinez to face Graig Nettles and Nettles homers, that's not a mistake.  Those are moves that didn't work.  There's nothing to aplogize about.

  I don't think this experience will deter me from doing the same thing again in a similar situation.  To me, it makes more sense to bring Wetteland in to face the 2/3/4 hitters in the 8th, and not the 5/6/7 (or lower) hitters in the 9th for the sake of a Save.

  In the second game, Joe Carter's 9th inning Grand Slam assured a 10-5 victory.   Alomar led the way with four runs scored, and stole a pair of bases, showing that Expos C Darrin Fletcher's arm may be a bit of a concern throughout the year. Installed in the #2 spot in the order for this game, Paul Molitor was 4-5 with a walk.  Not to beat my own analytic drum, but this had to be a huge factor in the Jays' win.  I chose Alomar over Devon White to lead off for the same reasons I chose Cordero over Grissom, and even though it's a small sample size, it's hard to argue with the results.  Then again, the Cordero-Moises Alou combo at the top of the order didn't do a whole lot in this game.

   I used the pitcher's fatigue point in these games, and even though no starter reached that point, it did become a factor in both games.  The ballpark effect chart also came into play several times in the second game, as potential Home Runs became lineouts to 2nd.  I downloaded the weather effect chart, but I'm not sure how much I'll use it - if any Strat players reading this would like to convince me that I should consider using it, please feel free to let me know.  I also could not find what an upside down clear triangle means, nor could I figure out how to use it.  Again, please inform me if you know.  I also did not use the pitcher's ability to hold runners on, and will have to figure out how to use this, or the opposition may steal everything but Fletcher's shinguards this year.  I started Jeff Fassero in the 2nd game, and in hindsight he may have helped to limit the running game a bit if I had used that element.

   When the regular season starts next week, I will make every attempt to look up the pitching matchups on baseball reference for each series and use them, to try to keep the simulation as real as I can.  I don't think I will look up injuries for the other teams as I go, and I realize that may put the Expos at a disadvantage - they will have to face the other team's best lineup day in and day out.  I may consider using back up Catchers in day games after night games, though.  Pitching matchups go out the window, of course, after August 11th, and I think that I will try to cycle through each team's rotation after that, so that the Expos will face the pitchers they likely would have faced.

   Having the dice and cards in my hand, hunched over my makeshift scorecard on my desk, it was just like my youth - except for the Jays spring training game I was streaming on my tablet.
   I wonder if I would have had any clue what that meant 30 years ago.
   I am truly looking forward to this endeavour.  It felt good to be playing Strat again, and living with the 94 Expos for part of an afternoon.

1994 - Storm Clouds on the Horizon

   I know it's been a while.......

 In case you missed my previous posts, or are just too lazy to scroll down and read them, I'm re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season using the classic board game Strat-O-Matic Baseball.
Both the Expos and Strat were fixtures in my youth, so this is a natual marriage to me.

 With a two year old and a newborn in our house in 1994, I did not get to follow the Expos as closely as I would have liked.  Jonah Keri's excellent history of the team, "Up, Up, and Away," as well as Danny Gallagher and Bill Young's superbly documented "Ecstasy to Agony: The 1994 Montreal Expos" have been fantastic memory joggers.

 There was both great anticipation and angst as the 94 season approached.  The 93 edition of the team saw its collection of rising young stars begin to hit their peak, as the team was in contention right up until the final days of the season, ultimately finishing 2nd to the Phillies with a very respectable 94-68 record.
  The 1993-94 off season would prove to be one of upheaval, though.
  Ace Dennis Martinez, whose 15 wins led the staff, departed as a free agent after the season, having becoming too expensive for the budget-conscious Expos.  A trade had been arranged in August that would send El Presidente to the Giants, but since the deal was after the trade deadline, Martinez had to clear waivers, and the Braves, gearing up for a pennant run, put in a claim.  The Expos then attempted to deal Martinez to Atlanta, but as a 10 and 5 man, he vetoed the deal, claiming that the Braves would not agree to a contract extension, and they only planned to use him as a sixth starter anyway.
  Nonetheless, the departure of the author of the only perfect game in Expos history did not sit well with the fans.  Their ire was only further provoked when leadoff hitter Delino Deshields, who some called the face of the team, was dealt to Los Angeles for a middle relief pitcher with a suspect shoulder.  Pedro Martinez would go on to win a Cy Young for the Expos before being dealt to the Red Sox, but fans were incensed at the deal.
  Added to this were the constant rumours that the club was on the verge of dealing slugging Canadian outfielder Larry Walker before he too became a budgetary burden.
  The off season drama continued as the talk that the architect of the team, GM Dan Duquette, was about to leave for greener pastures in Boston reached a head in January,  With the Expos unable to meet his demands for a new contract, Duquette bolted for the Red Sox as spring training was about to open.
 In the space of a few months, the team had lost its ace, one of its most popular players, its GM, and was on the verge of losing its best position player.  And lurking in the background was the growing specter of labour unrest, which had plagued baseball since 1981.
  What should have been an off season of growing enthusiasm turned into considerable frustration for Expos fans.  This was a team that was solid everywhere - starting pitching (despite the loss of Dennis Martinez), the bullpen, the starting lineup, and even the bench.  Players like Walker, Moises Alou, Marquis Grissom, Will Cordero, and John Wetteland were just coming into their prime.  And leading this group was Manager Felipe Alou, a longtime Expos minor league skipper who was just starting to build a legacy of his own.

  I will play a couple of exhibition games against the other team of my Canadian youth, the Blue Jays, this weekend, and update you all next week.  I'm using the advanced version of Strat, although I may give the super advanced version a try.  Both are more realistic than the basic version in terms of match ups, fielding, and base running.

Almost Ready for Pre-Season Play

Montreal Gazette photo

   For those of you who have clicked on this blog for the first time, welcome!
For those who have read my previous posts, I apologize for the inactivity of the last few weeks.

  I am re-creating the 1994 Montreal Expos season, the tragically strike-shortened one, using the classic Strat-o-Matic Baseball board game.  I am also using Out of the Park Baseball to simulate the other teams' games for that season.

  In my last post, I looked at some practical simulation questions.  While I plan to take the Expos to the World Series and win, I do want to make this endeavour as realistic as I can. I think I have answered most of my own questions.  One thing I do plan to do is to take more of a sabermetric approach to managing the Expos than Felipe Alou may have done in 1994.  For example, closer John Wetteland will not be limited to the 9th inning.  While my expectation is that he will close out games, I will not hesitate to bring him into high leverage situations in the 8th, if needed, and let another reliever close the 9th.

 I'm also considering tinkering with the Expos batting order.  Here is a typical order, taken from the July 23rd game vs the Dodgers:

Marquis Grissom cf
Cliff Floyd   lf
Moises Alou  rf
Larry Walker  1b
Will Cordero  ss
Mike Lansing 2b
Lenny Webster c
Sean Berry  3b
Jeff Fassero  p

And here is how the team's starters finished in terms of On Base Percentage:

Alou	.397
Walker	.394
Cordero	.363
Berry	.347
Grissom	.344
Floyd	.332
Lansing	.328
Fletcher	.314

  Based on that, Grissom doesn't necessarily profile as the most efficient leadoff hitter.  At the same time, using Tangotiger's Run Expectancy Table, the difference between a man on 1st/0 outs, vs no men on base/1 out is about 65% in terms of the average number of runs scored per inning.  Any base stealer who had a success rate of less than 65% would actually be costing his team runs.  Grissom's rate was about 85%, so while he did not get on base as often as I might like for a leadoff man, he wasn't running his team out of scoring opportunities.  

   I'm musing about using this lineup:

Cordero

Alou 

Walker

Berry

Floyd

Grissom

Fletcher

Lansing

   Cordero certainly is not a match for Grissom in terms of speed, but he got on base about 6% more often, giving Alou, Walker, and Berry chances to drive him in with extra base hits. Grissom's speed might be more valuable ahead of hitters like Fletcher and Lansing - he can move himself into scoring position.  I consider Alou to be the best hitter on the team, so I want him to have as many ABs as possible.  

  The starting rotation is pretty much set:

Ken Hill

Pedro Martinez

Jeff Fassero

Butch Henry

Kirk Rueter

   The Expos received 102 of their 114 starts from that group.  In the case of off days, I do plan on skipping Rueter's turn in the rotation sometimes.

  The bullpen will likely be:

Tim Scott/Gil Heredia  - long relief

Jeff Shaw -7th

Mel Rojas/John Wetteland - 8th/9th, depending on the situation

  That should leave room on the roster for bench players:

Webster

Lou Frazier

Juan Bell

Rondell White

   I'm undecided on the last two spots on the 25-man.  I'm leaning toward Randy Milligan for right-handed pinch-hitting duties, and Gabe White so there's at least one lefty in the bullpen, although the team went with a 10-man pitching staff for most of the season.  Tim Spehr is an option as a 3rd string catcher.

  It has nothing to do with the simulation, but back in the days when the Tigers had their AA affiliate in London, ON, about a three hour drive from my home, I booked myself into a conference in nearby Woodstock.  My main reason for doing so was that the conference coincided with a visit to London by the Expos Harrisburg farm club, and I was anxious to get my first look at Floyd and White.  In those pre social media days, I missed word that they had been promoted to AAA Ottawa a few days before my conference starter.  I still made the trek to London, and watched Berry and a young Miguel Batista play for the Senators.

  My wife and I are headed to Florida in a week to soak up some Gulf Coast sunshine, and hopefully catch some Blue Jays major and minor league spring training action.  Ok, my wife is more likely hoping to be catching some outlet mall action instead of going to the ballpark.

   When we return, I will play a couple of exhibition games against the Blue Jays to review how to play the super-advanced version of Strat.  I'll let you know how I make out.

  As always, if you have any thoughts, comments, or general observations and suggestions about how I can make this simulation better, please leave them below.