Practical Simulation Questions

   
   So............I have my cards, I've obtained a copy of the complete 1994 MLB schedule, but I've come to the realization that there are a few things I need to clear up first.

  If this is your first visit to this blog, I am recreating that 94 season from a Montreal Expos perspective, using the board game version of the classic Strat-O-Matic Baseball.  For updates, you can follow my Facebook page, or look for updates from my Twitter account, @Clutchlings77.  There are other excellent computer and board games out there, but Strat was the game of my youth, and the board version is my preference.  There's something about rolling those dice, shuffling through the cards, and scoring the game myself.

   The first decision I had to make was whether or not I should replay the whole season, or just take it from August 12, the date after the labour stoppage occurred.   After much consideration, while I see the merits of just finishing the season from the date the players walked, I've decided that after researching and reading about this team, I really want to play the whole season with them.  And my reason for that is purely sentimental - with two kids under the age of 3 in our house that year, I did not get a chance to watch the Expos a great deal.  This is my way of re-living that time.  After all, this is my project, and my blog.

  The second, and more difficult decision is how to simulate the season itself.  It won't be a true simulation in that I will have to alter the results with my own, but I would like to find the most reliable way to simulate the games between the other NL teams.  AL too, for that matter. Keeping in mind that this is just not me clicking a mouse in order to replay 1994, I want to try to make things as reasonable and realistic as possible.  Since playing all games from that season would not be practical, I've had to look at computer simulation.  I do have Out of the Park Baseball 2012 on my iPad, but when I have tried to purchase the 94 edition from the App Store, I get a message saying that the file is being modified, and that I should check back later.  I will try to get in touch with Tech Support at OOTP to see if they can remedy this situation for me.  If any of you fine readers have any alternative suggestions for how I should simulate this season, please let me know.

  Another consideration is how to fairly manage both the Expos, and the opposition.  After all, I will be Felipe Alou, hunched over my desk, with Strat cards and dice in hand, trying to win as many games as possible.  That shouldn't mean fielding the weakest lineup for each opponent, or ignoring strategic decisions.  To that end, before the start of every series, I will look at Baseball Reference for the pitching match ups.  For example, the Astros threw Harnisch, Drabek, and Kile at the Expos in their season-opening series, and I'll use that rotation.  Similarly, when the Expos visit Pittsburgh for a series in late May, the Pirates will use starters Cooke, Lieber, and Neagle.
   When it comes to actual strategic decisions (ie, when to bunt, steal, hit-and-run, etc), I'll try to do what any reasonable manager would do.  That may be easier said than done, but if the opposition has a speedy base runner, depending on the situation, I'll likely opt for the steal.  The problem, of course, is that I'm not playing a computer, which can use algorithms to decide strategy at a certain point of the game.  I'm actually playing myself, but trying to win (if that makes any sense).  In the spirit of fairness, I'll do what I can, paying attention to bullpen match ups and the like.  At the same time, I'm playing to win.  Felipe would expect nothing less.

   A lesser decision, but still one I have to make nonetheless, is how to compile the stats my Expos will be compiling.  I used to just take a piece of lined paper in landscape format, and use the lines as columns for the basic stats I tracked.  No more - this is 2016, after all.  After researching some baseball software, I came across an Excel sheet that someone had posted in a forum somewhere - it can track stats game-by-game, and has a cumulative page as well - perfect!  I've added some stats of my own, and I think beyond the basics, I'll use OBP/SLG/SB%/K and BB rates as well for hitters, and WHIP, K and BB rates for pitchers, and possibly even GB%.  I'm still tinkering with the spreadsheet, and will share it later on once I have it up and running.

  One last consideration would be which version of the game I should play:  basic, advanced, or super advanced?  The basic version is just that, and still offers a fairly realistic simulation.  The advanced version allows for more match ups, and has more options as far as fielding is concerned.  I'm not familiar with the super advanced version, which apparently has far more options, including weather and ballpark effects.  I have some more research to do there.

   I suppose I should also consider the fact that this re-creation won't be successful, even though this was the first year under the Wild Card playoff format.  If that happens, I will still play out the playoffs, using the teams my simulation advanced.
   Of course, that won't happen.  The 94 Expos will be there.


 

Valderi....Valdera...

  

 "Valderiiiiiii......Valderaaaaaa......Valderahahahahahah......Valderiiiii.....Valderaaaaaaaa......."

  Driving home from my grandparents' home in Eastern Ontario on a Sunday afternoon, my Dad would often tune in an Expos game from a radio station in Oshawa, just east of Toronto.  During a break in the action, the tune from Montreal organist Fernand Lapierre would echo around Olympic Stadium in between the dulcet tones of Expos broadcasters Dave Van Horne and Duke Snider.

  Before the Blue Jays, the Expos were truly Canada's team, captivating the country in both official languages. For a young baseball-mad boy growing up in Southern Ontario, they were a godsend.  NBC broadcast a Saturday game of the week, but with cable tv still in its infancy in Canada, the Wednesday night telecast on CBC was the only regular televised action I could watch

  Of course, the Expos were loveable losers in their early days, except for a brief flirtation with a pennant run in 1973, but by the late 70s, when I was a bored kid in the back seat of my parents' 1973 Ford Montego trying to pass the four hour drive home from my Dad's parents' place, the games took on new importance.

   A young core of players led by Gary Carter, Warren Cromartie, Ellis Valentine, Larry Parrish, and Andre Dawson lent considerable promise to the future.  By 1979, veterans Tony Perez and Bill Lee led the team into contention, finishing 95-65, 2 games behind the NL East and eventual World Series-winning We Are Famileeee Pittsburgh Pirates.  2.1 million rabid fans flocked to the Big O that year.

   That core of youngsters, who were labelled the Team of the 80s, never lived up to that promise.  Rick Monday's Home Run off of the bat of Steve Rogers, called in to relieve starter Ray Burris in the top of the 9th, eliminated the Expos in Game 5 of the (then Best of 5) NLCS.  The Expos would never scale such heights again.

   The team was mostly competitive for the rest of the decade, but had become an afterthought as the 80s gave way to the 90s.  Once again, the Expos rode a group of young players led by Larry Walker, Moises Alou, and Pedro Martinez, and by the summer of 1994, the team was rolling - they had four separate six-game winning streaks, and 8-game winning streak, and by August 11th were atop the NL East with a 74-40 record, 6 games clear of the Braves.

   We all know what happened next.

   The labour disruption resulted in the eventual cancellation of the remainder of the World Series, and cost the Expos what would turn out to be their last shot at contention.  The sell-off of the team's stars by ownership prior to the next spring training would turn out to be the beginning of the end of the franchise, which died a slow death under before moving to Washington after the 2004 season.

   Watching that final game was gut-wrenching, but the truth is was that the flame had long since been worthy of the candle.  My dad took me as a youngster to my first MLB game in 1973 at Parc Jarry, once labelled "Canada's largest outdoor insane asylum."  It was a sharp contrast the atmosphere we experienced 30 years later, when I took my dad to Olympic Stadium for a game between the Expos and Braves before about 8 500 fans in what seemed like a funereal setting.

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     My Uncle Tom introduced me to Strat-O-Matic Baseball sometime in the early 70s.  I taught my older brother to play, and we would often dump the player cards in a hat and "draft" a team, and play Best-of-Seven series against each other.  His buddy Wayne, who was tall and played 1st Base and therefore was nicknamed Willie, would play each other in the same manner.
    Eventually, I grew up (kind of), and went off to University, leaving my old Strat cards at my parents' house. While wandering around the former flagship store of the Eatons in the large downtown mall named after Canada's first family of retail, I came across the 1986 version, which cost $54 - a huge sum of money for a starving student.  I picked up the box, fought temptation, then set it down.  I circled the store several times before finally succumbing, and plunked down two weeks' worth of groceries for the game.  I still have the well-worn cards in my basement.

   The idea came several years ago, and was renewed when Jonah Keri's excellent "Up, Up, and Away," history of the Expos came out:  replay that 94 season with Strat-O-Matic.  I had a little trouble tracking a set down for the equivalent of a couple of months of groceries in 2015 dollars, but a connection on a Facebook group I belong to came through for me.  The 94 cards came in the mail last week, and I spent an enjoyable couple of nostalgic hours sorting through the whole set.
    My goal is to replay that season, and to blog about it as I go.  In subsequent posts, I will detail some of the decisions I had to make in order to make this simulation as realistic as I can.  I'll also play a few exhibition games against the Blue Jays and Red Sox in March to get my Strat feet back under me (I haven't played in a couple of decades).  Come April, I will follow the 94 schedule, and blog the results after each series.  I'll also keep a running comparison going between the real Expos, and my Expos.
    I hope you enjoy the posts that follow.